We missed the first week of premier league but now we’re to cover the whole premier league season from now on. This week is great from a betting perspective. Also, finally something else to think about than the conor-mayweather fight. Now let’s get to it:
Swansea vs Manchester United
The implied probability of a draw hitting here according to the odds is around 22.2%. The odds for draw is 4.50(+350) which is quite high. Therefore I recommend betting on draw for this game.
Bournemoth vs Watford
Betting on the home team in Bournemoth is the way to go. At 1.90 that offers enough value to justify a bet.
Burnley vs West Brom
This one is hard and is well reflected in the odds. The odds for both teams and draw are all very near to pickem which pretty much reflect my opinion. If I had to bet I would go with West Brom but I don’t recommend betting on it since the value is thin at best.
Leicester vs Brighton
I expect Leicester here to trample Brighton, not sure why the odds are relatively high(1.70). This one of the picks I like the most this week.
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace has been busting gamblers’ bankroll for a good while now, they have been underestimated a lot in the past, they’re that weak team that always seem to win at the wrong time. But against Liverpool’s strong lineup, I have a hard time seeing Palace pulling off the upset and also add in the fact that they’re away team.
Southampton vs West Ham
I really wanted to make a bet on Southampton Before the odds were released but the bookies got greedy, If you can find Southampton for over 1.70 I recommend a bet but <1.70 I have a hard time seeing the value. They’re the justified favorite but not by that much.
Stoke vs Arsenal
Stoke is the underdog bet of the week in my opinion. At 4 times the money, they have implied probablity of 25% to win. I Think their real chances of winning is a tad bit higher than that so the line is a bit off. Now I know that Stoke has a pretty shitty record against Arsenal and I think that’s why the betting market is pricing Stoke so high. Basically a good ole market overreaction to a good playing against a lesser team.
Huddersfield vs Newcastle
Man I wished the odds for Newcastle would creep higher but at 3.00 I can’t comfortably make a bet. Newcastle has a decent shot of pulling off the upset but at 3.00 the bookies are bit too cheap with the price for me to bite. However, I did find a good prop bet I liked: Over 2.5 goals. At 2.15 odds the market is saying it’s more likely to go under, and I would almost agree but I would say it’s very close to 50-50 so getting underdog odds is great deal.
Pick: Over 2.5 goals.
Tottenham vs Chelsea
The very last game… this one is legitimately hard to cap, especially when it’s this early in the season so I’m going to chicken out and take the easy decision: NO BET. Tottenham has the slight edge and the odds are pretty much reflecting this, I’m not seeing value anywhere here.