I’m of the opinion that this fight will happen but that’s a another discussion. I’m writing this post to discuss who I think will win and who you should bet on if this fight happen.
Obviously Mayweather should be the favorite but is the massively skewed odds in Mayweather justified? As of right now he’s around -2000 while Mcgregor is +1000. That means if you beat $100 on Mcgregor you will pocket a net profit of $1000 if he wins, a 10-1 underdog seems a bit off and here’s why.
As good as Mcgregor is standing his boxing is he’s nowhere near as good as Mayweather but he has a few things going for him. The big factor is the age gap. Mayweather is soon 40 and statistically speaking it doesn’t look good when either boxers and mma fighters hit their 40s. It is very possible that Mayweather’s age will finally start showing if he decides to step in the ring and this is a huge unknown, we have no idea until see it. This factor alone makes it very hard for me to Floyd as the heavy favorite.
The second factor is punching power. The good news for Mcgregor is that Mayweather isn’t exactly known for KOing people left and right and it’s very possible that Mcgregor chin will hold long enough for him to catch Mayweather. Also, McGregor has that powerful left.
Size! There’s a good reason why there is weight classes in both MMA and boxing though I would make the case that weight isn’t as big of an advantage in boxing and kickboxing compared to MMA. Anyhow, McGregor is the bigger man, standing at 1 inch taller and 2 inch reach advantage.
But even considering all the above factors, Floyd is still at another level when it comes to boxing so I also cap him as a relatively large favorite but not anywhere above -1000. Certainly not -2000. I think the fair betting lines should be around -350 to -450/+350 to +450. There are unknown factors surrounding this fight so therefore I’m giving a pretty wide range for my probability estimate.