Finally the day has come for Khabib to fight again and the anticipated rematch between Woodley and Thompson is here. Basically, this is an awesome card from an entertainment perspective and from a betting perspective I would say not bad but not the greatest card we’ve seen in terms of betting opportunities.
Stephen Thompson vs Tyron Woodley
Their first fight ended in a draw, a decision I personally agree with it. However, I feel that Thompson was the better fighter and I capped him as the favorite in an eventual rematch… now that rematch is here and unfortunately the bookies are in line with my opinion. Therefore I don’t see much value in betting on Thompson straight. He’s hovering around -160 to -170 on most bookies which doesn’t leave much room for value.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson
I suggest backing Khabib here at -170. When the line was set at -200 I had doubts but now the line is in value territory. Khabib should win but it’s definitely not an easy fight. Ferguson is unlike any other fighter he fought so far and the uncertainities makes it difficult for me to cap Khabib at -200 or better.
Daniel Kelly vs Rashad Evans
As much as I like Evans I can’t bring myself to back him here when he’s sitting at -240. In fact, I recommending backing Kelly here mostly because I want to fade Evans. A few years ago I would cap this fight as a slam dunk victory for Rashad but at his current state it’s difficult to know if he’s just done and even a figher like Kelly(no offense to you Kelly) can beat him. For +200 it’s worth gambling.
Alistair Overeem vs Mark Hunt
This one is tricky. Overeem’s weak chin makes it hard for me to back him as the slight favorite. He should win on paper by taking his time and outstriking Hunt but it’s hard to make that bet when you’re given worse than even money odds and Hunt can easily land a punch that will knock Overeem’s lights out.
Over 1.5 rounds prop is set at +100 which I think is a decent bet. It’s very likely Overeem and Hunt will feel eachother out because of their respect to eachothers’ striking(similar to JDS vs Overeem).