Alexander Gustafsson came through last even and we ended up with a nice profit. Unfortunately Taleb didn’t manage to finish of Oliver but he did won a comfortable decision. This card is expected to be a lot more entertaining, we finally get to see Aldo vs Holloway.
Jose Aldo vs Max Holloway
When I first saw this fight announced I capped Jose Aldo as decent moderate favorite(NOT HEAVY!) but I slowly started to change my mind when analyzed the fight more indepth and still believe he should be the favorite to win this fight but it’s still marginal. I would cap him around -130 to -150. Luckily for us, the odds are almost even money now, -110. I didn’t think the odds would improve that much, in my honest opinion I think this is an obvious value bet but I don’t recommend going big on it since it’s still a relatively close fight.
Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
In the early days of women’s mma there was a period where you could almost never go wrong backing the favorite. There are few women that kept winning and the underdogs never pulled an upset. But since the field has gotten tougher we’re starting to set upsets happen on regular basis like we see in men’s mma. I do believe Gadelha will come through in this fight, I expect a competitive but still a decisive win for Claudia. Do I see value in Karolna at +250? Not really.
Nate Marquardt vs Vitor Belfort
Both these guys have fallen quite a bit over the last 3 years and when Belfort opened at -185 I couldn’t see why anyone would bet on him at that price and of course the betting market reacted and quickly his line got pushed. He’s now sitting at -135 which is somewhat in bettable territory. For me it’s a simple decision, either bet small on Belfort or pass.
For props, I actually like over 1.5 rounds a lot. Yes, I’m well aware we’re talking about two dudes that are getting finished and like finishing their opponents so on paper this fight should definitely end inside distance probably inside 2 rounds. But…. +190 for the fight to pass 1.5 rounds means that people are putting a lot of faith into these guys finishing eachother quickly. The implied probability is 34.4% for the fight to go over 1.5 rounds which definitely consider too low.
Erick Silva vs Yancy Medeiros
Erick Silva was a guy that never seemed to put everything together. Young Silva isn’t that Young anymore, at age 32 he’s at a 3 years disadvantage. Yancy also has a 2 inch reach advantage not significant but it’s noteworthy given that this fight is likely to be kept standing. I liked the opening line of Yancy at +110, sligthy better than even money for a guy who I think should be a small favorite. Now his line has dropped to -120 which is boarderline not bettable anymore. My tip: if you can get yancy for -110 or better, put some money on it otherwise pass on this one. Depending on the bookie you should still be able to get him for -110.