After a long break we’re back again and we have a low profile event on our hands that presents some decent value opportunities.
Doo Ho Choi vs Jeremy Stephens
At even money I would lean towards Choi but Stephens at +140 is quite the misprice in my opinion. He should at tops be a small underdog. I’m not exactly in love with these odds but I’m recommending putting a small bet or flyer on it. Stephens have been quite inconsistent but I would argue that he even looked relatively decent in most of his losses. Doo ho Choi on the other hand was on a sick win streak until Swanson put a stop to it. I think people are giving a Little bit too much credit to Choi’s record and therefore undervalueing Stephens.
Uriah Hall vs Vitor Belfort
I by no means favorize Belfort in this matchup but having him as a +265 is just outrageous. Uriah Hall is the king of dropping fights and you could argue he has also peaked and is on the downslide. Belfort is obviously past his prime and off the juice at this Point but having him as a Heavy underdog against an inconsistent fighter in Uriah hall is just not far. Especially when you consider that this fight is most likely going to be striking fest something that both fighters excel at. Uriah Hall doesn’t really have an easy path to victory. That said, he’s the legitimate favorite in this matchup when you consider the age gap and the fact that Belfort is former shell of himself but the odds are out of control. Belfort is the pick here for a small sized bet.
Emil Meek vs Kamaru Usman
Kamaru Usman has an easy path to victory here and the odds show it. This will most likely turn into a wrestlefight with Kamaru ontop of Emil for 15 minutes grinding him down. I don’t see how you can make the case for -650, that’s crazy low odds but on the other hand I don’t see the value in putting a bet on Emil either. I think the odds have made this fight unbettable, look elsewhere for value.
Thiago Alves vs Zak Cummings
There is a reoccuring theme with this event, another underdog that I actually think offers value. Thiago Alves has had periods of inactivity and Zak has for sure improved in his last outings but Alves as a +170 underdog? I still think Alves’ striking will pose a serious threat to Cummings . I’m buying Alves’ odds.
Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson
I’ve seen a pattern with Johnson’s odds. He either gets too much praise or he gets too much hate which inflates his odds. His odds are usually mispriced. I think he’s being undervalued here once again. He should be closer to -200 favorite than he is. If you take a quick glance at his record it’s to hold a low opinion of him when you see all the losses but when you take into account the fights he has dropped the ball on it doesn’t quite look as bad. He has showed leaks against wrestlers before but overall his TDD is descent and Elkins is an average offensive wrestler at best. Elkins’ striking is far behind Johnson’s I struggle to see a clear path to victory for Elkins here. I see this as a clear 30-27 or 29-28 in Johnson’s favor. Final verdict: BET ON JOHNSON.